Wien, 12.12.2018, 13:55

Raiffeisen's search for capital will continue after the shareholders vote on merging its international arm, RBI, with holding company RZB. The current proposal will relieve short-term regulatory pressures but it fails to adress the structural weaknesses of the sector.

Raiffeisen insiders insist the bank's current woes stem from circumstances beyond its control. Outsiders say the business is now paying for the sins of the past. A new leadership is desparately trying to reposition the bank whose most important markets are in turmoil, and whose ownership structure leaves it with unique capital challenges.

Den goldenen Jahren der österreichischen Banken in Osteuropa folgen nun Jahre des Schrumpfens und des Abverkaufs. Dennoch beibt das CEE-Abenteuer der österreichischen Banken - bisher - ein lohnendes.

Durch die Notverstaatlichung der Hypo Alpe-Adria übernahm die Politik das Ruder. Seither dominieren politische Überlegungen und Schuldzuweisungen. Ein schwaches und wenig koordiniertes Krisenmanagement erschweren den Prozess. Das Bad-Bank-Szenario lag schon vor Jahre auf dem Tisch. Damals beschlossen, hätte es Österreich vermutlich erhebliche Steuermittel erspart.

By and large, the measures taken by Austria to support its banks in the depth of the financial crisis have worked. Three middle-sized banks, however, ran into trouble. Over the next 12 months the full cost of dealing with their problems is likely to become clearer. It will not be cheap. 

Central and Eastern European states became an obvious target for Austrian banks when they began to open to foreign investors following the collapse of communism. The woes of the Eurozone crisis have startet a creeping shift in deposits from southern to northern Europe and Austrian banks may be among those who benefit.

Interest Rate & Exchange Rate Forecast

Euro USD EXR
Aug 18 0,00 2,00 1,15
Sep 18 0,00 2,25 1,16
Oct 18 0,00 2,25 1,16
Nov 18 0,00 2,25 1,14
Dec 18 0,00 2,50 1,14
Jan 19 0,00 2,50 1,13
Feb 19 0,00 2,50 1,12
Mar 19 0,00 2,50 1,11
Apr 19 0,00 2,50 1,11
May 19 0,00 2,50 1,10
Jun 19 0,00 2,75 1,13
Jul 19 0,25 2,75 1,13

The World Economy

Weight Real GDP growth, %
2011 2017e 2018f 2019f
World 100,0% 3,7 3,9 3,6
USA 19,2% 2,3 2,9 2,7
Euro Area 14,3% 2,4 2,2 1,7
Germany 4,1% 2,5 1,9 1,8
Austria 0,5% 3,1 3,1 2,0
Japan 5,7% 1,7 1,0 0,8
Asia 28,9% 6,5 6,6 6,2
CEE 3,1% 5,8 4,1 3,8

f ... forecast
e ... estimated